Forecasts, runoff, precipitation, and snowpack conditions for March 10, 2022

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From the Department of Water Resources:

The Department of Water Resources finished the March 8, 2022 Bulletin 120 (B120) forecast update. The forecast includes observed conditions through the morning of March 8, 2022.  

The forecasts are posted at:

Forecast Summary: The projected median April-July (AJ) runoff ranges in the major Southern Cascades/Sacramento River basins from 40 percent of average for the Trinity River basin to 63 percent of average for the Yuba River basin, in the major San Joaquin River basins from 36 percent of average for the Cosumnes River basin to 68 percent of average for the San Joaquin River basin, and in the major Tulare basins from 30 percent of average for the Tule River basin to 61 percent of average for the Kings River basin.

Since the March 1 B120, forecasts for the northern river basins have decreased significantly due to the continued lower than average precipitation in March; however, watersheds in the central and southern Sierra have seen either minimal decreases or have stayed the same. The greatest decreases have been in the Feather and Tuolumne basins, which decreased over 3% of average since March 1st and the Consumnes basin which decreased almost 6% since March 1st.

Runoff: Since March 1, full natural flow rates in most Sierra Nevada river basins have remained relatively steady and have yet to see significant amounts of snowmelt despite the limited precipitation, however, it is expected that snowmelt will start increasing in most basins towards the end of the month. All rivers are running significantly below average, ranging from 17 to 37 percent of the March averages, except for the San Joaquin River which is running at about 50 percent of the monthly average.

Unimpaired flows in Percent of Average for Water Year 2022 are as follows:

River Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oct-Feb Mar (Month to Date)
Trinity 312 195 40 46 32 59 21
Shasta 104 104 73 64 29 62 25
Sacramento at Bend Bridge 125 115 76 54 25 60 23
Feather 348 137 117 74 45 93 37
Yuba 566 163 115 57 35 87 28
American 814 198 144 58 40 95 33
Sacramento Region 233 131 99 60 33 75  
Cosumnes 1334 151 254 51 28 89 17
Mokelumne 732 234 135 58 49 103 24
Stanislaus 432 161 146 47 47 89 36
Tuolumne 384 176 143 45 39 86 27
Merced 277 167 140 42 36 72 26
San Joaquin 282 170 215 71 67 117 50
San Joaquin Region 402 176 165 52 45 93  
Kings 96 100 126 53 51 72 32
Kaweah 70 49 99 38 34 49 28
Tule 65 29 95 35 22 40 25
Kern 51 58 72 45 37 50 26
Tulare Region 76 74 104 47 42 60  

Precipitation: After two historically dry months, March continues the trend of below average precipitation but does look to be better than January or February on both a total precipitation and percent of average basis. After 10 days, the San Joaquin 5-Station and Tulare Basin 6-Station indices have already recorded more precipitation than January and February combined.

Precipitation summary for Water Year 2022 as of March 10, 2022:

Region Percent of Average Precipitation (inches)
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar (Month to Date) WY to Date Mar (Month to Date) WY to Date
Northern Sierra 8-Station Index 453 58 144 14 4 3 82 0.3 32.2
San Joaquin 5-Station Index 314 25 195 0 2 11 73 0.7 21.1
Tulare Basin 6-Station Index 216 7 221 0 9 20 70 0.9 14.4

Snowpack: The statewide snowpack SWE based on snow sensors is 16.0 inches which corresponds to 57 percent of the April 1 average and 60 percent of normal for this date. Since March 1, the statewide snowpack has increased by 0.4 inches. The regional snowpack levels as of the morning of March 10, 2022 stand at the following (based on snow sensors):

Region No. of Stations Avg. SWC Percent of April 1 Percent of Normal
Northern 31 14.9 52 54
Central 43 17.3 58 62
Southern 28 15.1 60 65
Statewide 102 16.0 57 60

Weather and Climate Outlooks: According to CNRFC 6-day forecast, precipitation is forecasted in the Northern and Central portions of the state starting on Saturday and continuing through the end of the forecast window. The Northern and Central Sierras will see over half an inch of precipitation with lesser amounts in areas south of Stockton.  Currently freezing levels are as low as 4,000 feet in the Klamath Basin, 5,000-8,000 feet in the Sierras and 7,000-8,000 feet in Southern California. These levels are expected to rise for the first three days of the forecast window and then to start falling as the weather front moves across the Northern part of the state.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) one‐month outlook issued on February 28, 2022, suggests equal chances of above or below normal precipitation throughout the state except for the very north which has above average chances for above normal precipitation. Most of the state except for the very southern part has increased chances for below normal temperatures. The Southern part has equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

The CPC three-month (March-April-May) outlook, issued on February 17, 2022, suggests equal chances of above or below normal temperature for the for the entire state except for a small sliver in the southeast area of the state that has increased chances of above average temperatures.  The outlook also shows equal chances of above or below normal precipitation for the northern half of the state and increased chances of below normal precipitation the southern half of the state.

According to the latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 7, 2022, La Niña conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña and is likely to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring (77 percent chance during March-May 2022) and then transition to ENSO-neutral (56 percent chance during May-July 2022).

Next Update: A Bulletin 120 Update forecast for conditions as of March 15, 2022 will be available (with shamrocks ) on Thursday, March 17th. If you have any questions regarding this forecast, please contact a member of the Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting staff.

Important Links:

Full Natural Flow Data:

Precipitation Data:

Snow Data:

Extended Regional Forecasts:

Bulletin 120:

Other Useful Links:

Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit Contact Information:

Sean de Guzman, Manager sean.deguzman@water.ca.gov (916) 574-2208
Andy Reising andrew.reising@water.ca.gov (916) 574-2181
Lauren Alkire lauren.alkire@water.ca.gov (916) 574-1433
Anthony Burdock anthony.burdock@water.ca.gov (916) 574-2637
Steve Nemeth stephen.nemeth@water.ca.gov  

 

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