The CFS model is very strongly suggesting a large-scale pattern over the Pacific that would be highly conducive to an active California winter.
Very warm, mostly dry…except for some record-breaking localized downpours. And the drought goes on…
It has certainly been a summer and early autumn for the record books all across California, but for very different reasons in different parts of the state.
Record warmth has plagued nearly the entire state, while oppressive and truly uncharacteristic humidity rivaling that of South Florida (literally) has persisted across the southern half of the state. Precipitation wise, most of California has been much drier than average during September and October, with the remarkable exception of localized pockets of Southern California. Earlier this month, a slow-moving cut-off low combined with the pre-existing extremely moist atmosphere to produce intense and occasionally severe thunderstorms across the mountains and desert regions (and occasionally in the coastal plain) bringing highly variable conditions but also at least a few instances of devastating (and deadly) flash flooding. This isolated torrential rainfall, despite causing severe flash flooding, mudslides, and debris flows, has done little from a drought mitigation perspective. This is especially true since more northern parts of the state have remained almost entirely dry in recent weeks. In fact, parts of the Bay Area have only seen around a tenth of an inch of rain during a nearly 5 month stretch between June and late October. While California is famous for its unusually well-defined dry season, that’s remarkable even by Golden State standards.
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Earlier this month, a slow-moving cut-off low combined with the pre-existing extremely moist atmosphere to produce intense and occasionally severe thunderstorms across the mountains and desert regions (and occasionally in the coastal plain) bringing highly variable conditions but also at least a few instances of devastating (and deadly) flash flooding. This isolated torrential rainfall, despite causing severe flash flooding, mudslides, and debris flows, has done little from a drought mitigation perspective. This is especially true since more northern parts of the state have remained almost entirely dry in recent weeks. In fact, parts of the Bay Area have only seen around a tenth of an inch of rain during a nearly 5 month stretch between June and late October. While California is famous for its unusually well-defined dry season, that’s remarkable even by Golden State standards.
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